Ohio Prediction - Kerry by 1.8
Kerry will win Ohio by 1.8 points or more on November 2. How do I get there?
The Columbus Dispatch poll, the only poll that really matters, the one poll in Ohio that is never wrong, had the race at exactly 50-50 on Sunday. Out of a sample of 2,888, Kerry got 8 more votes. Not 8%...8 votes.
That means Kerry wins. Period.
In 1992, the most comparable year, Clinton won Ohio by 1.5%. Democratic GOTV in Ohio in tight presidential years is historically good for at least 2-3 points on the last Dispatch poll. This year, it may be good for more than that. With the higher turnout, both among R's and D's, this will bring the final margin to about 2 points.
Take it to the bank. Your next president is John F. Kerry. Hail to the chief.