Ohio Countdown 2004

2004 Presidential battleground analyzed by a grizzled campaign veteran and Ohio's Top Targeted Undecided Perfectly Predictive Swing Voter - His Mom.


Ohio Prediction - Kerry by 1.8

Kerry will win Ohio by 1.8 points or more on November 2. How do I get there?

The Columbus Dispatch poll, the only poll that really matters, the one poll in Ohio that is never wrong, had the race at exactly 50-50 on Sunday. Out of a sample of 2,888, Kerry got 8 more votes. Not 8%...8 votes.

That means Kerry wins. Period.

In 1992, the most comparable year, Clinton won Ohio by 1.5%. Democratic GOTV in Ohio in tight presidential years is historically good for at least 2-3 points on the last Dispatch poll. This year, it may be good for more than that. With the higher turnout, both among R's and D's, this will bring the final margin to about 2 points.

Take it to the bank. Your next president is John F. Kerry. Hail to the chief.


At 10:01 PM, Blogger Steers and Queers said...

Dear God, I hope Kerry takes Ohio and I hope it turns th e whole country Blue.

God, Please, God.

Judge Holden

At 1:54 PM, Blogger Crinis said...

I want you to be right sooo bad. I know I read things in a media filter, and things look good, but sometimes I peek out from behind my self-imposed isolation and read othe new sources. It shakes my faith.

Bring Ohio home for us! The country needs to repudiate Bush solidly. Good Luck!

At 7:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Despite the disgusting Democrat fraud attempts, Ohio goes for Bush. Thank God.

At 2:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

predict a kerry win im still going hahahahaha hahahahahahahaa hehehehehehehe hohohohohoho hooo hooo hoooohoooo losers! God I love it.Liberal pukes rofl.Ohio isn't that dumb gimme a break.

At 1:25 PM, Anonymous medical artists said...

Thanks,my god.


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