Watch Out For Ohio Polling Innaccuracy
Wild swings in polls giving you whiplash? Ohio has a recent history of this.
There's been a lot of talk about how accurate polls are this year, (especially the Bush bounce and it's seeming elusiveness)...probably a by-product of the unprecedented number and availability of polling in the public domain.
Saw Joe Klein on PBS NewsHour the other night, he is now arguing that polling today is wildly innaccurate because no one picks up the phone anymore. The argument goes that because of this, every polling sample is essentially self-selecting...with such a large number of people refusing to participate, the numbers simply can't be accurate.
Plus, with all the voter registration efforts out there this year adding tens of thousands of new people to the rolls, is it really possible to get an accurate poll?
Ohio's recent polling debacle? A 2002 congressional primary race...a certain D congressman thought he had a 17 point lead the week before his primary...he ended up losing to the next D congressman by almost the same margin, suggesting that polling is increasingly becoming just so much bullshit. Can anyone name the losing and winning candidates in that race? Anyone at all?